On 8 April, after 4 years of active work, the US special services have released the Report of the National Intelligence Council, which discusses the security challenges in the world and states that Russia and China are the main problems for the “civilized world” in this regard. According to this Report titled as “Global Trends 2040”, both these states, especially Russia, is considered to be a growing revanchist force that “moves through traditional values” and seeks to “destroy the existing world order”, to nobody interfere in its domestic affairs and establish its “protectorate” over a large part of the Eurasian space . . .”
Authors of the report underline also that the “Democratic world” must not allow the similar trends, which create a threat to factual human values. Moreover, for this, Washington and European states must act side-by-side, since only by mutual efforts it will be possible to the “Democratic world to resist the “Kremlin’s intensions. . .”
For reference: These days it has become known that the Biden administration is going to allocate $ 715 billion to the Ministry of Defense.
“Georgia and the World” talks to Lieutenant General Guram Nikolaishvili about the meaning of the phrase underlined in the report prepared by the US special services that “Moscow is moving through traditional values” and what steps the Biden administration can take in response to these processes based on its satellite states.
-, Mr. Guram, the Report titled “Global Trends 2040” released recently by the US special services, which is published per 4 years, states that “Russia moves through traditional values and tries to nobody interfere in its domestic affairs”. The report says also about China. What does such evaluation mean and why it is a matter of concern for Washington “moving through traditional values” by any country?
-, Let’s start by what is in general happening now between Russia and the USA. After the crash of the US attempts in Syria and directly proportional increase of the Kremlin’s authority in the international arena as a global player, the idea of an already destroyed and ending 1-pole world is buried once again. The White House say goodbye to the luxury that has given it a virtually unlimited privilege in setting the global agenda. The world has changed, and so has practice. This made it a reality that one of the vectors, in this case Washington, will not determine the rules of the game, but that this vector could be Moscow or even Beijing. This has created a troubling reality for the Biden administration, but their geopolitical collapse doesn’t stop there. . .
– What do you mean?
– I mean, that earlier then in Syria, the USA suffered a crash in the Ukraine too, which as if made its choice and preferred “Light NATP or EU” to the “Black Soviet past”. Their (USA) last crash was in the Southern Caucasus. As you know, Armenia owned Nagorno-Karabakh for almost 30 years, which made it a winner, but as soon as there were signs that the Pashinian government had changed its foreign policy orientation, Armenia found itself unprotected. And, what came out? The Americans failed to achieve the goal of encircling Russia from the west and south, while Georgia, Armenia, and Ukraine, which were virtually blind weapons in the process, lost territories. By the way, the Ukraine lost not only territories, but the industries, as well. As you know, Ukraine was a country, that had as strong army the best officers and generals. All are dismissed now. I say nothing about the fact that the military industry and not only it, was om the highest level in Ukraine. For those who do not know: Ukrainians have two tank plants: one – for repair works, in Lvov, and the other – major, in Kharkov. Moreover, Din the Soviet period and thereafter they produced the highest quality rocket engines, which were surprising for the countries with the world leading military-industrial complexes. Do you know here is all this now? Americans have taken them for their use. Besides, Ukraine has sold its incomplete military ships and almost all its aviation . . . They had 600 planes, now they have 200
As to the above mentioned Report in particular, which says that Russia moves through traditional values, yes, a strategic control and securing its own safety in the South Caucasus, is a traditional value for Russia, and, it is of an essentially important space for it. The similar control is critical for Russia in Ukraine, Belarus, Black Sea area. . . . However, in addition to the geopolitical meaning, here an ideological part is also important. What do I mean in it? I mean that one of the top priorities of Biden’s policy has always been and still is to establish a neo-global agenda in the world, Including, among others, increase of the rights of so called sexual minorities, legal introduction of one-sex marriage, homosexuals parades, etc. And, even in this part too, Russia is the largest barrier for him, because, as you know, Russia with its conservative discourse, brings serious dissonance to the world “liberal” agenda. By the way, that is why Russian occupation is largely unacceptable for Georgian so-called liberals who declare themselves patriots, and not because you have lost territories. . .
-, Under the Biden administration, what concrete steps should we expect from the White House against Russia as a state moving through traditional values? This one, and the other – how can Georgia be used as a blind political tool in this process again?
-, Until starting talking about Georgia, I would like to say a few words about the real reasons of Washington’s concerns. Of course Biden’s Administration understands it well that despite active Western resistance, Russia has virtually assembled a triangle in the South Caucasus geopolitical zone. I mean that Russia has its military base in Armenia, that is critically important for stragegically. Russia has its military base in Karabakh also. As of today, there are about 8000 soldiers there, but their number will soon increase up to 16000. Besides, Russia has two military bases in Georgia: one in Tskhinvali and the other in Sokhumi. By the way, Sokhumi base will soon be doubled by number of militaries, as some information is spread about such plans. The base in Tskhinvali will be strengthened too, with placing there two brigades. More specifically, one tactical brigade, and, it means that such new subdivisions will be added which were not earlier in its composition , plus adds from other brigades like anti-aircraft and tank brigades, etc. As to your question of what steps and in what form the West can make in response to the Kremlin, and in what form they can use us as a blind weapon, I think Ukraine is the first and, as seen the West will doom Ukraine to the end. This is evidenced by the fact that not a peace-oriented rhetoric is heard from Western officials pushing the parties to negotiate, but talks about military assistance, financial, political support and so on. However, I do not think that they will allocate serious aids to Ukraine. They will help in the limits they will need for preserving the tension within desirable for them ranges. That is all, and afterwards, nobody will be interested what remains from this country after war, the population of which really does not want wars. As to our country, we all know that Georgia is no longer perceived as a state in the eyes of Americans and in fact, their ambassador decides here everything. Therefore, we do not know what will happen tomorrow or a day after tomorrow, But, in case of their strategic interest, they will enforce Georgia and Moldova too, to involve themselves in the anti-Russian campaign.. However, I am absolutely sure in one thing: NATO will not involve itself in an open war with Russia; For this, it will necessarily use a third country, and then will express traditional concern, about such country’s ruins.
By the way, I am very interested in how a country that is concerned about traditional values can be a strategic partner for us ?! This is a natural question! If the traditional values of Russia are unacceptable to them and at the same level that they are already using weapons, will we be allowed to defend our own traditional values ?!
-, What kind of policy on our part would be most appropriate and adequate so that, in the light of the current events in Ukraine, we do not find ourselves at the epicenter of the conflict of large states?
-, Let’s think at first, approximately how long will it take for the Russian Armed Forces to come from the Gyumri base on the one hand and the from the North on the other, and meet each other in Tskhinvali? How long time it will take for them to occupy completely our coastline?
As for the correct and adequate policy, I think in the conditions when the political establishment of the country only speaks about the occupation and “fights” this occupation with very strange methods, sometimes taking off pants and showing ass, and sometimes banishing Posner, and then bragging about not giving him time for dinner, it’s too early to talk about adequacy. This is exactly what our as if strategic partner vaccinated against traditional values allows us to use as a blind weapon. This is something that a man does not know how many more losses he will give us tomorrow or a day after . . .
Interviewed by Jaba Zhvania