The Western media has spread falsehood, as if Chinese President Xi Jinping had asked Putin not to invade Ukraine in February and not to overshadow the world sports celebration with a military conflict, which China attaches great importance to its image. This story was soon rejected by both Russia and China. It seems that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the desire of the West, and Russia does not need or intend to attack Ukraine. Is the situation artificially strained by the West between Russia and Ukraine? What will Germany, Russia, Ukraine and France agree on within the so-called Normandy format? Will Russia give up its positions? Doctor of Political Science, Professor Tamar Kiknadze talks about these and other important topics.
-, The West and Russian President Vladimir Putin view the issue differently. The Russian president is addressing the issue globally, focusing on the new world order, and talking about the role of the Russian Federation in this new order; The West sees all this as a problem for Ukraine and Russia’s desire to invade there. Vladimir Putin raises the issue very harshly and talks about Russia’s role. He is awaiting a written response, confirmation of his proposals that NATO will no longer expand eastward. And the West, as always, plays by the usual rules – it delays time and raises new issues.
The situation is very tense today, the states with nuclear weapons are talking to each other and quite tense, but I still think they will definitely agree on something.
– What will it be like for something? The fact is that tensions between Russia and Ukraine are provoked and it helps someone. The situation is artificially tense, because it has already been said that Russia is not going to invade anywhere.
– Yes, the West wants to escalate the situation between Russia and Ukraine and present it as an unresolved problem.
Russia and the West are demonstrating force. Russian military units are ready for military operations, in response to which the Western media is shouting that hostilities may begin, which will lead to the occupation of Ukraine. Joint exercises of Russia, Iran and China have been held, which means demonstrating strength again and again. An unprecedented thing happened a few days ago – the President of Iran arrived in Moscow and was given the opportunity to address the State Duma, which means the greatest support. Concentration of forces occurs on both sides. Also meeting are Putin, Xi Jinping, the Prime Minister of India, the President of the United States, and so on.
Today we are all witnessing such a painful process as the formation of a new world order. It is true that the Americans say that in the 21st century they will not tolerate a change of spheres of influence, but the Russian president is also invincible and says that Ukraine, Georgia and the post-Soviet space are the red lines that will not be allowed to cross; Moreover, Putin demands that everything return to the way it was in 1997.
-, The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken traveled to Kiev and Berlin and then met with Lavrov in Geneva. His main topic of conversation was the implementation of the Minsk Agreement. Do Americans and the West play a double game?
– Anthony Blinken demands fulfillment of the political part of the Minsk agreement, which provides for the autonomy of the disputed territories within Ukraine, but the Russians have gone further and demanded not only the implementation of the Minsk agreement from Ukraine, but also a written response that NATO will not expand east; They also demand an answer on Russia’s role in the international agenda and spheres of influence. In these spheres of influence, the Russians also refer to the post-Soviet and post-socialist space.
-, The Beijing Winter Olympics are set to take place in February. Some in the West think that war will start during this Olympics, while others think the opposite. There are many speculations that some may even start a war in Ukraine, just as it happened in Georgia in August 2008.
– On the contrary. Vladimir Putin is arriving in China and there will be an opportunity for the Russian president to hold meetings and discuss a number of issues.
– For several months now, the world has been turning its attention to Russia and Ukraine. We constantly hear information that the war will start in a minute, but, fortunately, it has not started. The imagination remains as if someone is artificially aggravating the situation.
– It is true that the situation between Russia and Ukraine is very tense and at the same time the military formations of both countries are mobilized, but in this turmoil is a completely different topic Western rhetoric about the impending threat, which really looks like an incitement. The West does not talk about the main topic and focuses only on Ukraine, and the main topic, as you mentioned above, is the request of the President of Russia not to touch the post-Soviet space.
– Whose side is in the lead in these negotiations?
– Military strength is on the Russian side. Given modern military technology, Russia has no equal, and Russia does not speak lies if it is not confident in its capabilities.
– Russia’s strength in terms of armaments is understandable, but on whose side is the truth?
– More towards Russia, so far it has always been quiet and called the West a partner, but the West has often ignored it. Now the situation has changed. So the advantage is Russian in every way, but I still hope they agree on something and the case will not go to war.
– Do you think that such a tense situation will calm down through negotiations? The US President spoke of a “small invasion” of Russia in Ukraine.
— Biden’s talk on the issue of “small invasion” caused a great deal of irritation and the White House had to explain this issue.
I hope that the negotiations between the countries in the field of nuclear weapons are a restraining factor and they will definitely reach a compromise.
It is not favorable for Vladimir Putin to invade Ukraine. We saw what the Russians did in the case of Georgia – they occupied only those strategic areas that would allow them to deploy bases to control the sea and borders. Ukraine is a big country, its occupation and the stay of the Ukrainian population is not beneficial for Russia, they will act pragmatically, if something happens, it will only be to control the territories, they will not try to fully occupy it. The annexation of Crimea was also a pragmatic step, there are their bases, it is a strategically important area. There is a Russian fleet in Sevastopol, they had rented it out and there were total misunderstandings, so the issue was resolved that way.
– In short, will all this chaos end in negotiations?
-, Completely so that nothing happens, no. Russia will not back down from its categorical demand. Recall the so-called Caribbean crisis, when at the last minute all sides showed responsibility and agreed on something. I think it will happen this time as well.
– We know that the meeting of the participants of the so-called Norman format – representatives of Russia, Germany, France and Ukraine – is scheduled for January 26 in Paris. What will be the outcome of this meeting, will Ukraine step back?
– No important decision may be made at the Normandy format meeting. Russia will not back down, it will definitely demand changes in the world order. I think in the light of these meetings, these tensions and negotiations, many things will definitely change, including the role of Russia. Russia is a strong state, it will not give up what it claims now and what we talked about in the chapter. The process may take a while, but many things will change.
Interviewed by Eka naskidashvili