The Ukraine crisis is still in the focus of attention. The world is watching the growing tension between the two countries. Whether diplomacy will bring results and whether war will be avoided is a key issue that arises naturally in the light of the current situation. War should not start; the diplomacy has no alternative – these messages are formally shared by all. Everyone agrees that bloodshed is better than dialogue and peaceful resolution of the conflict, although there are subjects in the collective West whose actions differ markedly from their rhetoric.
The United States and the United Kingdom are countries which political leaderships mix talk of alternatives to dialogue with open warfare and provocative rhetoric; They condemn the aggression, they preach peace, at the same time Ukraine is armed (I do not say anything about the threatening statements that in case of war Russia will return the soldiers wrapped in sacks). Another question is what type of weapons are sent to Ukraine and whether it will be useful in the event of a large-scale war with Russia, but the fact is: across the ocean and partially across the sea do not want peace between Russia and Ukraine. On the contrary, as time goes on, their desire to increase the geography of the current conflict and the so-called conflict around Russia becomes clearer. To create an arc of hot spots … By the way, the mention of Georgia and Moldova during the visit of the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to Kiev can be considered as a clear demonstration of this interest. The British Prime Minister stressed that Russia is not the only threat to Ukraine. According to him, we should not forget Georgia and Moldova …
How will the current events in Ukraine affect Georgia and what geopolitical shifts can it cause in the South Caucasus? – This is a question raised by the current situation. It is difficult to draw unequivocal conclusions, but one thing is probably clear to everyone – Georgia, like Ukraine, should not become a blind weapon; Georgia should not become a political tool of the West against the Kremlin, which once happened in 2008 and which led to the defeat in the war …
Former Chief of General Staff, Major General Givi Iukuridze talks about the developments in Ukraine, the threat of war and other important issues.
Mr. Givi, in the light of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, it is clear that some Western actors do not want to defuse tensions peacefully. Primarily this applies to the United States and the United Kingdom. They do not shy away from belligerent and provocative rhetoric in parallel with calls for dialogue. They do not shy away from sending weapons either. Recall the statement of Wendy Sherman that in case of war the Russians will be defeated by the soldiers wrapped in sacks, or the statement of Boris Johnson that 200 thousand Ukrainian soldiers are ready to fight to the last drop of blood … What does all this mean? What does this rhetoric serve?
– Let”s start with Zelensky, who called on the West not to aggravate the situation and not to make panic-provoking assessments. He said something like this: they have a feeling abroad that there is a war here, it is not like that … Why did the President of Ukraine make this statement? First let”s take a look at their economics. Amid the panic that followed the artificially strained situation by the West and, above all, the United States, the Ukrainian economy is collapsing. Its losses already exceed $ 15 billion. There is practically no investment and the economic turnover is stagnant … Zelensky, of course, understands that no one can compensate for this loss, no help from the West can compensate for these losses. On the contrary, focusing on external assistance for economic stability could further collapse the country and deepen the crisis, which is already approaching its peak … Now the second and even more important issue: Ukraine also realizes the dire economic situation amid lost war, broken security and lost territories. Maybe it will cause a social explosion … Imagine the situation of the average statistical Ukrainian, who, on the one hand, is threatened with war, on the other hand, the West has no hope and, at the same time, is threatened with starvation … Vladimir Zelensky concerned about Western statements. What about Western politics? And approaches, it should be noted here that the West is not monolithic in its interests. There are states in Eastern and Central Europe that do not want a war between Russia and Ukraine. These are Germany and France. Why? _ For a couple of reasons: first _ because it calls into question their safety; and the second, which is especially relevant to Germany, is economic interest. Here, it is impossible to reconcile the positions, because for the same Germany “North Stream _ 2” is the most important …
– However, there is a country in Europe with radically different interests. For example, the United Kingdom, which, in practice, repeats one of the political messages of the United States.
– It has always been so and it obviously has its basis. Now what do they want, why do they try to show the situation in darker shades than it actually is. Let”s look at the question this way – who will suffer the most from the war between Russia and Ukraine, who will suffer the economic, political, territorial and human loss? First, of course, Ukraine and then Russia. It will be a war in which one of them will not be the real winner, but the third party will win, the one who does everything to turn the crisis into a large-scale military confrontation … By the way, if you remember, the United States, based on its “credible sources”, also named specific dates for the start of the war. It was first autumn, then winter, then the month was named February … Which one was justified?
_ The date is still named _ 16 February. Do you think the party interested in starting the war will be able to achieve the goal?
– I believe that there are people in the political leadership of Ukraine who assess the situation correctly, but external factors are of great importance. It is difficult to say what will happen, but the fact is that Ukraine is being prepared and encouraged for a military confrontation. As for the weapons sent by the United States and the United Kingdom to Ukraine. Clearly, there is a great deal of interest in these weapons, and the question is often asked – what type of weapon are we talking about? According to my information, these are mainly firearms – anti-tank, anti-aircraft and communication means, personnel equipment, etc. This is to emphasize the anticipation of an attack by the armored vehicles of the Russian Armed Forces and an air attack.
– Will these weapons be useful to the Ukrainians if the war really starts?
– The weapons sent to Ukraine will not play an essential role in deciding the fate of the war. Lord forbid, but if a large-scale war starts, Russia will make the main calculation not on land, but on air strikes. Besides, everyone knows well where the weapons sent to Ukraine are stored and who is in charge of them, so the first shots will be aimed at those warehouses …
– Boris Johnson said during his visit to Kiev that both Georgia and Moldova are in danger. Do you think we can consider this as an attempt to involve us in the anti-Russian geopolitical game and thus gather a kind of arc of hot spots against the Kremlin?
– Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine – these are the three that the collective West has long considered in one political context. Why? Because in order to have more effect, or rather, to give a kind of allied, campaigning character to his anti-Russian political discourse in specific directions. As for Georgia, I think the feeling that the collective West needs additional tools against the Kremlin in this case is absolutely reasonable, so Georgia, like Moldova and Ukraine, is considered in this context. This is evidenced by the fact that they talk about the threat and that it turns out that Russia is bad, but in fact do nothing to strengthen our security; On the contrary, they are doing everything in their power to question the Kremlin”s interests by using us as political tools, and as a result we find ourselves in danger of another military confrontation with Russia. Here is a clear example of this today in Ukraine …
– What do you think about the position of the Georgian government, is the “Dream” policy adequate for the current events?
– In fairness, it should be said that the government pursues a more or less moderate policy. This was also reflected in the pro-Ukraine parliamentary resolution, but this approach is not enough to ensure our security. In the long run, we will definitely have to think about a balanced policy of a higher standard, which will include some adjustments towards Russia and will be based on the objective state interests of Georgia. Here, only this can be a full-fledged guarantor of security, which, unfortunately, we do not have today and with this political data, we will probably never have …
By Jaba Zhvania
