{"id":17291,"date":"2022-11-09T10:28:45","date_gmt":"2022-11-09T06:28:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/?p=17291"},"modified":"2022-11-25T09:21:58","modified_gmt":"2022-11-25T05:21:58","slug":"consumer-confidence-is-near-its-lowest-in-a-decade-and-that-could-be-a-problem-for-biden","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/consumer-confidence-is-near-its-lowest-in-a-decade-and-that-could-be-a-problem-for-biden\/","title":{"rendered":"Consumer confidence is near its lowest in a decade, and that could be a problem for Biden"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Anxiety over the cost of living and the direction of the economy could prove costly to President&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/joe-biden\/\">Joe Biden<\/a>&nbsp;and his fellow Democrats in Tuesday\u2019s election.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Recent surveys show consumer sentiment has risen only modestly and remains well below where it was a year ago, when inflation worries first began to grip policymakers, shoppers and business executives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/fetchdoc.php?docid=71550\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">report released Friday<\/a>&nbsp;outlined the problem for Washington\u2019s current ruling party. The University of Michigan, which releases a closely watched sentiment survey each month, asked respondents who they trusted more when it came to the economy and which would better for personal finances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The result: overwhelmingly Republican.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The survey of 1,201 respondents saw Republicans with a 37%-21% edge on the question of which party is better for the economy. While that left a wide swath \u2014 37% \u2014 of consumers who don\u2019t think it makes a difference, the disparity of those with a preference is huge. (The survey did not distinguish whether respondents were likely voters.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which political party is better at handling the national economy and issues of personal finance?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>THE NATIONAL ECONOMY<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/wTTvQ\/1\/\">https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/wTTvQ\/1\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PERSONAL FINANCE<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6Klwo\/1\/\">https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/6Klwo\/1\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note: Data as of Nov. 4, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart: Gabriel Cortes \/ CNBC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/fetchdoc.php?docid=71550\">University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, among all demographics, the only one in the Democrats\u2019 favor was the sole party group. Whether it was age, household income or education, all other groups favored the GOP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On overall sentiment, the Michigan survey saw&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">a reading of 59.9 for October<\/a>, 2.2% better than September but 16.5% below the same period a year ago. The reading is just off its all-time low in June 2022 and is running close to its lowest level in more than 11 years, according to data that goes back to 1978.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cIt\u2019s a huge problem\u201d for Democrats, said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments, who specializes on the impact of politics on the financial markets. \u201cThey\u2019ve seen enough evidence since Labor Day showing how the economy dwarfs every other issue, but they didn\u2019t do anything about it. They didn\u2019t say the right thing, they didn\u2019t show enough empathy. To me, this was a really sorry performance.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Valliere thinks the issue could get so large that Biden may have to announce soon that he will not seek a second term in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cI think the Democrats have a lot of problems right now,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"University of Michigan&#039;s Consumer Sentiment Index\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/xlaoA\/2\/#?secret=cqCJM7NzVe\" data-secret=\"cqCJM7NzVe\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"425\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Consumer confidence also hit&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/2022\/11\/07\/consumer-confidence-in-housing-hits-new-low-says-fannie-mae.html\">an all-time low on housing<\/a>, with just 16% of respondents saying they think now is a good time to buy, according to a Fannie Mae survey that goes back to 2011.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Those types of readings have not boded well for the party in power.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Former President&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/donald-trump\/\">Donald Trump<\/a>&nbsp;lost his bid for reelection in 2020 when the Michigan poll was just above its early&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/coronavirus\/\">Coronavirus pandemic<\/a>&nbsp;low. Conversely, Barack Obama won reelection in 2012 when the survey was riding a five-year high. George W. Bush captured his bid for a second term in 2004 when sentiment was middling, but Bill Clinton triumphed in 1996 when the Michigan gauge was at a 10-year high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for congressional control, in the 2010 midterm election, when the Obama-Biden administration lost a stunning 63 House seats, the biggest rout since 1948, the reading was at 71.6. That was only narrowly better than the year before when the economy was still climbing out of the financial crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Today, the public is particularly anxious about inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After declining for two months in a row,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sca.isr.umich.edu\/files\/tbcpx1px5.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">October\u2019s one-year inflation outlook<\/a>&nbsp;stood at 5%, up 0.3 percentage point from September and the highest reading since July. The five-year outlook also rose, up to 2.9%, and tied for the highest level since June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The University of Michigan survey also found respondents had more trust in Republicans when it came to the fate of their personal finances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The GOP held a 15-point lead against Democrats in that category, including a 19-point edge among independents.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The survey showed expectations running high that Republicans will prevail in Tuesday\u2019s election and wrest control of Congress back from Democrats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Which political party will control Congress after the 2022 midterms?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Which political party will control the House after the 2022 midterm elections?\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/XCvFA\/2\/#?secret=wireIazZGt\" data-secret=\"wireIazZGt\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"221\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>U.S. SENATE<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-datawrapper wp-block-embed-datawrapper\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" title=\"Which political party will control the Senate after the 2022 midterm elections?\" src=\"https:\/\/datawrapper.dwcdn.net\/seOQV\/1\/#?secret=QCYBYxleaI\" data-secret=\"QCYBYxleaI\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" height=\"237\"><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Note: Data as of Nov. 4, 2022<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chart: Gabriel Cortes \/ CNBC<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source:&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/data.sca.isr.umich.edu\/fetchdoc.php?docid=71550\">University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On both the general economy and personal finance questions, Republicans did far better among those holding a high school diploma or less, with a 25-point edge in both questions. Those holding a college degree gave the GOP an 8-point edge on the economy and a 10-point advantage on personal finances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/\">https:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Anxiety over the cost of living and the direction of the economy could prove costly to President&nbsp;Joe Biden&nbsp;and his fellow Democrats in Tuesday\u2019s election. Recent surveys show consumer sentiment has risen only modestly and remains well below where it was a year ago, when inflation worries first began to grip policymakers, shoppers and business executives. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":17293,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17291"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17295,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17291\/revisions\/17295"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/17293"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17291"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17291"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/geworld.ge\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17291"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}